Monaco host Marseille in Ligue 1 Matchday 28. Three points separate them in the table, but a canyon separates them in form: one side is building momentum, the other is bleeding it week after week.

Monaco have won 6 of their last 10. Their rating has climbed 105 points this season. Marseille's has dropped 33. The table says the gap is narrow; the underlying numbers say it's the difference between a Champions League side and a mid-table outfit.

Almost twice as many quality chances per game as the Ligue 1 average. But behind the shine hides a problem: over the last 10 matches opponents have created enough to score 3 more goals than they actually did. Monaco's defence is holding up only because opponents keep missing, and that's luck that runs out.

Marseille is the opposite story. Their creativity drops match by match and now barely clears the league average. The trend isn't slowing down.

59% possession, 16 shots per game: Marseille play on volume. Monaco take 11, but every shot carries more threat. On shot quality Monaco sit above the league average, Marseille below. Fewer shots, more bite.

Between the 61st and 75th minute, Monaco score at double the league rate. 7 of their 20 goals fall in that stretch. After the 76th they go quiet: just 2 late goals against a league average of 25%. If it's level at 60, that's exactly where Monaco want to be.